VesselBot analysis reveals 31% emissions gap
A new analysis of over 86,000 voyages shows a 31.3% efficiency gap between Hapag-Lloyd and MSC on a key trade lane, despite similar distances, highlighting
Global container shipping's average emissions intensity rose 1.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026 to 231.7 grams of CO2 equivalent per TEU-kilometer. According to a new analysis from Athens-based data firm VesselBot, this fleet-wide average obscures significant efficiency gains across most vessel segments and stark operational differences between carriers on identical routes.
VesselBot analyzed 86,389 voyages completed by 6,523 container vessels. The report found that five of six vessel-size categories improved their efficiency compared to Q2 2025. Only feeder vessels, which operated 63.9% of all voyages in the quarter, became less efficient. Their decline was large enough to pull the overall fleet average higher.
"That is the risk of managing to an average: It can point you in the opposite direction of what is actually happening," said Constantine Komodromos, chief executive and founder of VesselBot.
Vessel size and utilization drive efficiency
The data highlights the disproportionate role of large ships. Neo-Panamax and Very Large Container Ships (VLCS) ran just 7.4% of all Q2 voyages but generated 43.5% of total transport work. They accounted for only 27.4% of emissions. Feeder and Panamax vessels showed the opposite pattern, operating 80% of voyages, generating 26% of transport work, and producing 45.6% of total emissions.
Vessel utilization was a key predictor of emissions. Voyages in the most efficient emissions-intensity category averaged 80% utilization. The least efficient voyages averaged just 31% utilization. The most efficient voyages also carried close to 9,000 TEUs on average.
| Vessel Category | Efficiency Change (Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025) |
|---|---|
| Very Large Container Ships (VLCS) | +10.6% gain |
| Neo-Panamax | Data not specified in source |
| Panamax | +0.9% gain |
| Feeder | Decline (specific % not given) |
Major trade lanes show outsized impact
The four major fronthaul trades had a significant impact on global efficiency. These routes from China/East Asia to Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, and the North America West Coast, plus Northern Europe to the North America East Coast, accounted for only 1.2% of all Q2 voyages. Yet they generated 21.7% of total quarterly transport work while producing just 12.3% of emissions.
Carrier performance gap on key route
On the Northern Europe to North America East Coast trade lane, the quarterly average Well-to-Wake emissions intensity was 138 grams CO2e per TEU-km. Analysis of individual carrier performance on this route revealed a major gap. Hapag-Lloyd recorded an average emissions intensity of 80.7 grams CO2e per TEU-km, which is 59% below the trade average. Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) posted 117.5 grams, 15% below the average.
This created a 31.3% efficiency gap between the two carriers operating similar voyage distances and port pairs. The report attributes this difference to vessel deployment, utilization, and voyage execution.
"A trade lane average tells a shipper what a route looks like on paper. It does not tell them what happened on their shipment," Komodromos said. "Distance alone cannot explain that spread. The difference is in how those voyages were executed."
The report is based on AIS-tracked voyage data and VesselBot's vessel-specific digital twin models. It measures Well-to-Wake emissions intensity at the individual voyage level rather than relying on carrier-reported averages.
