Domestic intermodal container volumes hit
Loaded domestic intermodal container volumes reached a new annual high of 21,697 on September 28, driven by sustained cost savings and seasonal growth
Domestic intermodal container volumes reached a new annual high of over 21,000. The 7-day moving average of loaded domestic intermodal containers hit a new annual high of 21,697 on Sunday, Sept. 28. This record reading remained elevated heading into the final day of the third quarter, layering seasonal tailwinds on top of an already strong baseline.
Cost savings remain strong despite slight easing
Significant cost savings continue to drive freight from trucks to rail. The Intermodal Contract Savings Index eased from a peak of more than 33% in mid-August to approximately 30.9% as of Wednesday. Julie Van de Kamp described the 30.9% savings level as "really historically high." Savings are particularly pronounced on specific high-volume corridors.
| Corridor | Savings vs. Truck Spot Rates |
|---|---|
| Harrisburg to Atlanta | 43% |
| Outbound California lanes into Ohio | More than 42% |
Growth outlook faces capacity constraints
Seasonally adjusted data suggests loaded domestic intermodal volumes could grow by another 4% heading into Thanksgiving. Van de Kamp cautioned the projection does not account for economic factors and could shift if demand weakens, service deteriorates, or intermodal rates rise significantly. Rail service has slowed somewhat over the past year as more freight has moved to the rails. Each additional week of volume growth will tighten available intermodal capacity, strengthening the case for a rate increase in the fourth quarter.
International volumes show contrasting trend
On the international side, intermodal container volumes are holding steady at 13,620 on the FreightWaves index. This figure is down from a high of around 15,000 in July. Van de Kamp attributed the moderation in international volumes to importers pulling shipments forward earlier in the year. This produced a more elongated but somewhat muted peak season rather than a sharp late-summer surge. This pattern is consistent with what was seen in over-the-road volumes during that period.
Seasonal and baseline growth align
The September volume lift follows typical seasonal patterns. Domestic container volumes typically rise from August into September. The normal seasonal lift is running on top of roughly 8% year-over-year growth. Van de Kamp noted, "That combination of the two is really kind of worth noting and continuing to watch." Each additional week of volume growth will tighten available intermodal capacity, strengthening the case for a rate increase in the fourth quarter.
