Import Bookings and Inventories Stabilize in 2026
U.S. Import bookings have flattened while inventory levels show unusual stability, creating a tight logistics environment as shippers face rising costs and
Import bookings into the United States are averaging lower than the previous two years. Inventory levels, meanwhile, have been remarkably stable, according to data from FreightWaves SONAR.
This combination points to a steady but tight inventory management environment. Analysts describe it as one of the tightest of the post-COVID era. The situation means many companies risk missing revenue in the fourth quarter as they work to mitigate the rising costs of holding excess stock.
Tracking the Key Metrics
The Import Ocean TEUs Volume Index (IOTI) measures container import bookings on a 14-day moving average. Its current trajectory is flatter than in any of the past four years. The inventory level component of the Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) gauges whether surveyed managers are expanding or contracting stockpiles. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
In 2026, the LMI inventory reading peaked at 60.5 in June and hit its annual low of 52.8 in August. This past year has been one of the most stable in recent history. The relative flatness suggests shippers have been extremely efficient in optimizing their inventory against forecasted demand.
A Volatile Recent History
The current stability follows years of dramatic swings. In late 2021, bookings were high as shippers grappled with major supply chain disruptions. These challenges eased rapidly in 2022 when demand fell and over-ordering backfired. The LMI inventory reading soared from 58.8 in November 2021 to 80.18 by February 2022.
Importers did not shift strategy until summer 2022, when the IOTI fell nearly 40% from June to October. Bookings remained subdued into mid-2023 as inventory levels contracted. The great destocking phase waned in late 2023. It was replaced by a rebuilding period in 2024, with the IOTI averaging nearly 15% higher for the year.
Tariffs and erratic trade policy heavily influenced 2025. The IOTI spiked to COVID-era highs in summer before plummeting in the fall. This resulted in an expansionary inventory situation that lasted until year-end. Then, inventory levels contracted at the fastest pace in the index's history.
Handling Current Challenges
2026 has been far less chaotic but possibly no less nerve-racking for shippers. They are handling rapidly expanding transportation and inventory costs within a shaky consumer environment. Politics have become increasingly intertwined with economics, creating unease despite aggregate figures painting a stable picture.
So far, a moderate approach to ordering has worked well in aggregate. The historically consistent IOTI and LMI figures indicate businesses are selling about as much as they are ordering. This works in a stable economy, but it is a fine line to walk. This year's holiday season is one of the most challenging to predict.
Looking at the chart, history would be a poor predictor of what happens next. Each of the past five years has looked nothing like the one before it. Shippers must decide if continuing the same strategy makes sense. The report advises monitoring the situation closely and having contingencies ready to react quickly.
