Reliance Partners' Albrecht Sees Potential for Extended
At the 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar, Reliance Partners' Thom Albrecht argued that a confluence of regulatory pressures could extend the current
Reliance Partners Chief Revenue Officer Thom Albrecht told an audience of nearly 360 logistics professionals that the current freight cycle has the potential to last longer than those of the past two decades. He made the case at the 5th Annual Trucking Matters Seminar in Nashville, framing his analysis as a tale of two cities within the trucking industry.
Albrecht split his presentation into two parts. The first examined the broader economic landscape, while the second focused on structural changes in trucking capacity. He noted that business demand is better than in 2025, with customer inventories near historic lows, supporting steadier freight creation. However, the consumer picture is mixed. Inflation-adjusted wages saw gains for 35 months before turning negative in April and May of this year.
Category-level inflation tells a messy story beyond the 3.5% headline CPI figure. Savings rates are near 3%, well below the historical average above 8%. Credit card delinquencies at 90 days have climbed to 7.1%.
| Category | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|
| Gasoline | Up 26.7% |
| Lettuce & Tomatoes | Up 23.8% |
| Coffee | Up 18.5% |
| Bacon | Down |
| Used Vehicles | Down |
| Eggs | Down |
Housing has been stuck for nearly four years. Existing home sales per 1,000 households have fallen to roughly 26, far below the 44-59 range seen in the 2000s and 2010s.
The Tale of Two Cities
Albrecht used the Dickens reference to describe a trucking industry split between compliant and non-compliant operators. His data shows a stark operating cost difference. Compliant carriers operate at roughly $2.38 per mile when factoring in insurance, payroll, drug testing, legal CDLs, and maintained equipment. Carriers who cut corners operate at about $1.65 per mile.
This creates a massive cost advantage. A non-compliant 50-truck motor carrier has up to a $6.5 million cost advantage over a compliant fleet of the same size. Albrecht argued that fraudulent and non-compliant carriers have thrived for years while compliant fleets absorbed the cost of doing business correctly.
The surge in new carrier registrations highlights the issue. Yearly registrations of new DOT numbers for for-hire, interstate, general freight carriers exploded from a 2010-2019 average of 9,760 to a 2020-2025 average of 36,658. There were nearly 60,000 new registrations in 2025 alone.
Albrecht's presentation flagged signs of fraud driving these numbers. These include carrier phone numbers like 123-456-7890, single addresses housing hundreds of trucking companies, and CDL mills with multilingual advertisements. He highlighted that CDL schools still advertise obtaining a CDL without English proficiency, with several real examples visible online today.
The Potential for a Super Cycle
During a panel, Albrecht made the case that this cycle could break recent trends. He defines a super cycle as one lasting longer than two years with pricing much stronger than CPI, if not double-digit. The industry hasn't seen one since the cycle from mid-2003 to fall 2006. The 2013-2014 and 2017-2018 cycles each lasted roughly 18 months and were tied to single regulatory catalysts.
Albrecht argued this cycle is different because it isn't riding on one rule change. He acknowledged the danger in stating "this time is different" but pointed to multiple regulatory pressures. "Thus far there have been a handful of regulatory changes during this cycle, and more changes are expected," Albrecht said. He looks for more than a handful of Notices of Proposed Rulemakings (NPRMs) in the next couple of quarters.
Changes already impacting the market include English Language Proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and cabotage rules. A proficiency exam for new-entrant motor carriers is advancing. The FMCSA has also announced the elimination of self-certification for CDL entities and ELDs. Nearly 8,000 CDL entities have been removed, but Albrecht noted that on November 30, 2025, there were 39,554 entities in the training provider registry, a number still above 30,000 today compared to roughly 6,000 in 2019.
Regarding ELDs, Albrecht said simply announcing third-party certification is insufficient. I expect more details later this year or early in 2027 around what the certification process will look like, he said. With approximately 1,000 ELDs in the United States compared to 41 in Canada, he believes there could eventually be barely 30 approved ELDs in the U.S. Once certification is in place.
He also advocated for a written proficiency exam for new carriers. However, he cautioned that more action is needed for a true super cycle. If the FMCSA were to stop pursuing changes today, the cycle would be over by late 2027 or early 2028, Albrecht said. Right now, we're in a boat with numerous holes.
On-the-Ground Sentiment
Fleet leaders from companies like Christenson Transportation and Apex Transit Solutions described a currently healthy freight market that is historically prone to losing steam after 18 to 20 months. The consensus is that structural capacity losses may be permanent this time.
Shippers on the panel, including representatives from General Mills and Shaw Industries, said service levels have deteriorated. Several are actively rebuilding relationships with small and mid-sized carriers after leaning too hard into mega-carrier capacity. Many expect the gap between spot and contract rates to close by early 2027 and are bracing for double-digit rate increases.
The event featured a live Q&A with FMCSA Deputy Administrator Jesse Elison, giving attendees direct access to the agency shaping these regulations.
