Record July container volumes show underlying trade strength
Global container volumes hit a new monthly record of 17.3 million teu in July, with year-to-date growth of 5.1%.
Global container shipments reached a new monthly record in July, according to Container Trades Statistics (CTS). The firm recorded 17.3 million teu shipped, surpassing the previous high set in May by approximately 25,000 teu.
CTS stated that July's performance was strong both in isolation and within the broader yearly trend. Year-to-date global volumes are 5.1% higher than the same period in 2025, while July 2026 itself showed a 4.5% year-on-year increase. "With volumes continuing to reach unprecedented levels despite considerable market disruption, the underlying strength of global container trade remains clear," the data provider said.
Sub-Saharan Africa was the standout region for percentage growth, with its year-to-date imports up 14%. Europe's imports for the same period grew by 6.1%.
Divergent spot rate trends
A perplexing trend has emerged on the transpacific. Spot freight rates have shown continued strength despite a relatively weak demand picture. North American imports from the Far East in July stood at 2.23 million teu, a 4.2% increase over July 2025. This followed a flat June where 2026 volumes were just 0.7% higher than the previous year. Yet, July's price index on the Far East-North America corridor jumped 46.5% compared with July 2025.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand noted the sustained climb in rates to the US East Coast. "Average spot rates from the Far East to the US east coast continue their ascent following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in February, climbing a further 25% since early July," he said. Xeneta's short-term rate index recently recorded a spot rate of $10,910 per 40ft container on that lane.
Sand highlighted the extraordinary market situation. "Spot rates are now just 14% shy of the Covid peak on 1 January 2022." He added that average spot rates into the US East Coast have already surpassed the peak seen during the Red Sea crisis by about $1,000 per 40ft box.
Carrier capacity management
Analysts at Sea-Intelligence Consulting argue the recent transpacific spot pricing strength is largely due to judicious capacity management by shipping lines. The firm analyzed the total transpacific trade, combining East and West Coast routes. It found capacity grew just 2.5% from 2024 to 2026 when looking at the July and August periods, equating to an average annual growth rate of only 1.2%.
The firm compared average spot rates for July and August 2024 with 2026 using the World Container Index (WCI). The data shows rates in 2026 are lower than in 2024.
| Route | Spot Rate Change (2026 vs. 2024) |
|---|---|
| Far East to US West Coast | 8% lower |
| Far East to US East Coast | 9% lower |
"These data do therefore not imply a structurally strong container demand development on the transpacific in 2026," Sea-Intelligence concluded.
Rate increases and market movements
A review of Drewry's World Container Index for July appears to support this analysis. After carriers imposed a General Rate Increase (GRI) at the start of July, the WCI spot rate on both the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York corridors remained essentially flat for the rest of the month, even declining softly. Rates rose again at the beginning of August following a partially successful GRI. Another increase was recorded last week, spurred by a GRI effective 1 September, pushing rates up 5% to the US West Coast and 3% to the East Coast.
Peter Sand of Xeneta noted that while the growth in spot rates into the US East Coast has eased, further upward pressure should be expected with the Golden Week holiday period in early October on the horizon.
