Africa-Far East trade growth stalls as Asia
Container trade growth from Africa to the Far East fell to just 0.6% in June, while Asia-to-Africa volumes surged 25.1%, according to Container Trades
Growth on the Africa-to-Far East container trade lane has effectively stalled, with volumes rising just 0.6% year-on-year in June. In contrast, cargo moving from Asia to Africa surged by 25.1% over the same period, according to the latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS).
Forwarders active on the route told The Loadstar that the minimal growth from Africa aligns with conditions they have observed for months. They pointed to equipment shortages across Africa and congestion at the port of Singapore as key pressures. One forwarder described the current situation as "much of a muchness on rates and volumes" since April, noting that volumes to the Far East had diminished while those to the Middle East were nearly wiped out.
Diverging trade flows
The CTS data, published two months in arrears, reveals a stark divergence. The westbound lane from Africa to Asia has lost all momentum. Meanwhile, the eastbound flow from Asia to Africa has maintained strong, double-digit growth throughout the year.
The following table shows the year-on-year growth percentages for Asia-to-Africa volumes for selected months in 2024:
| Month | Year-on-Year Growth |
|---|---|
| February | 63.7% |
| March | 19.7% |
| April | 17.2% |
| May | 28.4% |
| June | 25.1% |
Drivers of Asia's export surge
Industry sources link the strong eastbound growth to improving economic conditions across Africa and significant investment flowing into the continent. This economic activity is making the trade lane increasingly important for carriers, who reportedly see it as a key pillar for their future growth.
However, this positive momentum faces potential threats. Labor disputes in South Africa are cited as one risk to the smooth flow of cargo. Operational challenges at key gateways also persist. Commenting on the situation in South Africa late last month, one forwarder was blunt. "Honestly, it is a shit show," they told The Loadstar. "ICTSI has taken over one of the terminals and, apparently, productivity at the gateway has in fact worsened since."
Operational headwinds persist
The forwarder added that getting goods moved under these conditions was "a crapshoot." This operational instability, combined with the ongoing equipment shortages in Africa, continues to complicate logistics on the lane. While freight rates have remained largely stable in both directions according to CTS, the underlying volume dynamics and infrastructure pressures paint a complex picture for the Africa-Far East trade.
