Global Air Freight Volumes and Contract Trends Shift in 2024
Air freight demand and spot rates rose in September 2024 and 2026, while shippers pivoted sharply to short-term contracts of three months or less.
Global air freight volumes increased 6% year-on-year in September 2024. Key trade lane spot rates also climbed, with Europe to North America up 2% and Northeast Asia to North America up 5% month-on-month. Global capacity grew 2% year-on-year, but spot rates averaged 27% higher than in September 2023. Xeneta’s dynamic load factor increased by two percentage points to 62% in September 2024.
Contract trends show shift toward shorter agreements in 2024
A growing share of new air freight contracts in Q3 2024 were for three months or less, while longer-term agreements declined significantly year-on-year. The data reveals a stark change in shipper strategy.
| Contract Duration | Share in Q3 2023 | Share in Q2 2024 | Share in Q3 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three months or less | 25% | 47% | 60% |
| Three-month agreements | 16% | Not specified | 42% |
| 12-month contracts | 40% | Not specified | 25% |
| Contracts longer than 12 months | Not specified | Not specified | 3% |
This shift occurred as global airfreight capacity was flat in July and August 2024. Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled their pre-conflict level due to continuing tensions in the Middle East. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, noted the change in approach. "There is a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market," he said.
Parallel trends in 2026 reveal continued market adjustment
Similar patterns emerged two years later. Global air freight volumes rose 6% year-on-year in September 2026. Spot rates averaged USD 3.10 per kg, a 27% increase over September 2025 and a 2% rise month-on-month. Capacity increased 2% year-on-year in September after flatlining in July and August. The dynamic load factor again stood at 62%.
The contract landscape in 2026 mirrored that of 2024. Among new agreements beginning in Q3 2026, 60% were for three months or less, up from 25% in Q3 2025. Three-month agreements specifically accounted for 42% of new contracts, up from 16% a year earlier. The share of 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25% between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026, with deals longer than 12 months making up just 3%.
E-commerce trade flows show divergent paths between Europe and the US
E-commerce exports from China told two different stories in both 2024 and 2026. Flows to Europe plummeted following EU customs changes, while exports to the US grew. The EU removed the de minimis exemption for low-value parcels and imposed a €3 per item customs duty on July 1 in both years.
The impact was immediate and severe. China-Europe e-commerce exports fell 40% year-on-year in August 2024 and 25% in July 2024. The same declines, 40% and 25% year-on-year, repeated in August and July 2026. In contrast, China-US e-commerce exports increased 17% year-on-year in both August 2024 and August 2026.
Broader supply chain pressures persist. Ocean freight schedule reliability has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Renewed disruption in the Red Sea and port congestion have pushed Asia-U.S. West Coast ocean freight rates back toward pandemic-era levels. This context helps explain the air cargo market's rigidity. Van de Wouw argues that "a one-year fixed rate deal doesn’t fit the current conditions." He expects global air freight demand to grow around 4% year-on-year in 2026.
