Truckload market cycle remains supply-driven
Data from FreightWaves SONAR indicates the current truckload market cycle is uniquely supply-driven, with accepted tender volumes near 2019 levels but
The Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI) averaged around 9,800 last week, while the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) hovered near 13.5%. According to FreightWaves, these figures, though down from 12-month highs, signal the current truckload market cycle is more supply-driven than any in recent history and still has room to run.
Accepted tender volumes act as a proxy for total truckload demand when rejection rates are low. When the market tightens, they anchor how much freight carriers can cover with existing capacity.
Interpreting volume and rejection signals
A rise in ASTVI alongside a decline in STRI signals capacity growth or improved market efficiency. A flat ASTVI with rising rejections indicates capacity erosion, as seen in October of both 2024 and 2025. When both indices fall together, it reflects pure demand deterioration, which occurred this past July.
The recent demand drop lowered rejection rates, but this did not signal new capacity. Shippers have turned to intermodal for cost savings. Demand-side conditions are volatile and move markets quickly. Supply-side shifts are much slower; it took over three years to correct the dramatic post-COVID oversupply.
Recent ASTVI levels are close to 2019's, lower than most of the past four years except last October and November. Rejection rates, however, tell a different story.
| Period | ASTVI Level | STRI (Rejection Rate) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Close to recent levels | Below 5% for most of the year |
| Last Fall (2025) | Similar to recent levels | Below 6% |
| Last Week | ~9,800 | ~13.5% |
The table shows that with roughly similar demand, current market tightness, measured by rejection rates, is more than double that of 2019 and last fall. This disparity is a key feature of the current cycle, which you can explore further in our stats section on market indices.
The slow supply adjustment
While demand could still deteriorate, data suggests more room for growth than contraction. Recent Q2 2026 carrier earnings reports show no evidence of fleet growth, with most reporting annual declines in active units.
Class 8 truck orders are up this year, but that follows an abysmal 2025. Both ACT and FTR cite fleet replacement, not growth, as the primary driver. It may be early for strong movement, as carriers are emerging from one of the longest and most challenging freight markets since the 2009 Great Recession.
Carrier cash reserves are low and debt is high. This cycle will continue if the goods economy holds. Risks skew toward further tightening, not rapid softening. Factors like demand growth, rail disruptions, intermodal rate increases, and continued government pressure on capacity all point toward continued tightness, a trend tracked in our fixtures data for future capacity projections.
